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Archive for August, 2010

I have echoed these sentiments for years.  Of course, you are not heard when you say something that is negative, not in a think tank, etc…just keep fighting the good fight.

Don

Chicago Tribune
August 23, 2010
Pg. 17

Petraeus’ Dubious Strategy In Afghanistan

By Christopher Layne

Gen. David Petraeus recently began a public relations blitz to convince American public opinion that the U.S. should stay the course in Afghanistan rather than holding to President Obama’s pledge to start withdrawing troops in July.

But most non-military observers understand that the war in Afghanistan cannot be won in any meaningful sense. They also understand a big reason for this is that success in Afghanistan requires a lot more than battlefield victory. To stabilize Afghanistan, the U.S. needs to establish good governance and foster economic development there. In a word, the U.S. must engage in nation-building. The U.S. has a long record of failure at that. Petraeus, however, would have Americans believe that the war can be turned around if we just give his strategy more time, troops and money. In making this case, Petraeus is banking on his prestige as the architect of the 2007 Iraq surge.

That credibility, however, rests on a dubious foundation. The media-savvy Petraeus created a myth — and that is what it is — that the Iraqi surge was successful. Studies of the Iraq war have shown, however, that the surge was incidental to dampening down the violence in Iraq. Most important, however, the surge failed to achieve its overriding objective, which was, as then-President George W. Bush declared, buying time for Iraq’s Shia and Sunni populations to achieve political reconciliation. As the current political stalemate in Baghdad indicates, in this respect the surge failed, and Iraq faces a bleak political future.

The strategy Petraeus advocates for Afghanistan is a dubious one based on the counter-insurgency (COIN) doctrine of which he is the primary author. Col. John Nagl, an influential COIN theorist who is president of the Center for a New American Security, has said it will take “at least a generation” for the U.S. to prevail in the fight against terrorism.

The new strategy assumes that the global counter-insurgency may last as long as the Cold War, and will require a greater mobilization of national resources than has occurred to date.

The problem with COIN is that in the real world none of the preconditions that military planners deem necessary for success can be fulfilled. Neither Congress nor the American public is willing to accept an open-ended military commitment to Afghanistan.

COIN misdiagnoses the root cause of America’s Middle Eastern difficulties. The U.S. is the target of Islamic terrorists because of its regional policies like support for corrupt regimes, its one-sided stance on the Israeli/Palestinian problem, its heavy politico-military presence, and the fact that the U.S. appears to many in the Middle East to be the imperial successor in the region to the French and British who once dominated it. As Andrew Mack, currently on the faculty of the School of International Studies at Simon Fraser University, pointed out in a classic article 35 years ago, there is a good reason that big states lose small wars: The forces of national and religious identity are stronger than the will of outside powers — powers that, inevitably one day will go home.

On its own terms, COIN is a problematic policy. Even more worryingly, it sets exactly the wrong grand strategic priorities for the United States. In an ironic coincidence, the same morning leading newspapers carried reports of Gen. Petraeus’ remarks, another headline announced that China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second largest economic power and is on track to overtake the U.S. by 2030 (indeed perhaps as soon as 2020, according to many leading experts). In the early 21st century, East Asia is becoming the world’s geopolitical and economic fulcrum, and it is U.S. air and naval power that will be needed to meet the emerging challenge from China. That is where America’s long-term grand strategic interests lie — not in fighting futile Eurasian land wars in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.

Christopher Layne, the Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National Security at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service, is writing a book on the collapse of the Pax Americana.

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My friend and colleque Fabius Maximus pointed out to me that the author of this report the “Greatest Depression” by Gerald Celente is by a alarmists. I tend to agree, while I continue to advocate a need for a peaceful revolution by voters, get real leaders into office-our nation’s situation is not hopeless.

The source for the Goldman report (also you mgiht find it easier to copy from there): Zero Hedge URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-forecasters-need-cut-gdp-estimates-lot-further,

From Fabius Maximus,

Here’s what an expert economic forecast looks like.  Boring, but the best anyone can do amidst the fog.  Peering over the car’s hood, looking to see what’s in front of us.  Worse, in economics we’re not sure where we are — or even what’s happened the during the past few months.  Note the discussion about the 2nd quarter!

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My friend and Carlton Meyer, a former Marine Corps officer who participated in military operations around the world., who runs the site G2mil, has described exactly my feeling on the Arizona law, as well as illegal immigration. As I have pointed out before, it has nothing to do with racisim, but everything to do with numbers.  Why does our country have to be the spillover pond for the rest of the world, particularly Mexico, Central and S. America?  Our population, according to a recent article in Washington Post, indicated that Caucasion and African American birth to death rates are 1 to 1. On the otherhand, hispanic is 1 to 9!  Again, my view, supported by a ton of economic and resource data is that if we allowed our nation’s population to level off, where people are only have replacement levels of births at 1.9 or 1 to 1, then our population would level off, and we could begin to fix our major problems, otherwise it is a race we are going to lose and are losing already as local and states are going broke supporting all these additional children these people are not responsible enough to think about before having them.

Article by Carlton Meyer. http://www.g2mil.com/crumbles.htm

Arizona’s Popular Law July 14, 2010

According America’s corporate media, Arizona passed a law allowing police officers to inquire if someone is legally in the USA because most Arizonans are racist. That is so absurd that a majority of Americans support the Arizona law. Does that make the majority of Americans racist, even though that same majority elected President Obama?

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Why is man the dumbest of all animals?

We know we are already encountering severe shortages of critical resources, such as water, now 10 nations in danger of having no water to support their populations. But, we still believe that we can have unlimited population growth, and somehow, technology will save the day!

I was driving with my good friend to a Civil War antique and gun show in Richmond from my home in Woodbridge, VA, about 60 to 70 miles. It took us two hours because Interstate 95 was a parking lot, both ways; yet, I hear so called smart people, with PhDs in conservative think tanks, cringe when people bring up the need for population control or levelling off.  My question is, how are we going to take care of these extra people if we cannot do it now? They never have an answer, just use fantasy.

Below is an article about Pakistan having water shortages, despite its record flooding, and in light of these shortages, their population will still increase from 170 million to 220 million in the next decade! The information is out there that these type of disasters are occurring, but people still add more of us to our ranks! Why, because we are stupid. What is wrong with encouraging all of us to be responsible, and limit the size of our families to one or two children (replacement rate), so all of us have a future of living better. Instead, our leaders, live in a fantasy world hoping that technological breakthroughs will allow us to live without responsibility.

When one traces the roots of all our problems, it always ends up with overpopulation. Of course fixing it will not be easy, nor will it require what China did with its one child policy, it just demands the public be informed, and this is something the elites do not want to do, and then there are the organized religions of this world, that also live in fantasy lands with their misinterpretation of the bible, or what ever book they follow and almost all demand more people.

Just imagine if our country’s population levelled off? Wow, we  could actually catch a breather about fixing a lot of our severest problems.

August 15, 2010

Drowning Today, Parched Tomorrow

By STEVEN SOLOMON

Washington

HARD as it may be to believe when you see the images of the monsoon floods that are now devastating Pakistan, the country is actually on the verge of a critical shortage of fresh water. And water scarcity is not only a worry for Pakistan’s population — it is a threat to America’s national security as well.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/535350/And-Now-Were-Headed-For-The-GREATEST-Depression,-Says-Gerald-Celente

And Now We’re Headed For The GREATEST Depression, Says Gerald Celente
Posted Aug 20, 2010 08:47am EDT by Henry Blodget in Recession
Related: ^dji, ^gspc, tlt, tbt, edv, udn, tip
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The fake “recovery” was nice while it lasted, says famous apocalyptic forecaster Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Research Institute. But now the fun’s over, and we’re headed for what Celente describes as the “Greatest Depression.”

Specifically, the always startling Celente says the country is headed for rising unemployment, poverty, and violent class warfare as the government efforts to keep the economy going begin to fail.

The crux of the problem, Celente argues, is that the middle class has been wiped out. America used to be a land of opportunity for all, where hard-working people could build their own small businesses in their own communities and live prosperous and fulfilling lives. But now a collusion of state and corporate interests that Celente describes as “fascism” have conspired to help only the biggest companies and the richest Americans. This has put a shocking amount of the country’s wealth in the hands of a privileged few and left the rest of the country to subsist on chicken-feed wages and low job satisfaction as Wal-Mart “associates” — or worse.

The answer, Celente says, is to bring back the laws that prevented huge companies from getting so big and powerful, and put some opportunity back in the hands of ordinary people. But doing that is going to take a while. And in the meantime, we’re headed for trouble.

(Celente’s dead right about U.S. wealth inequality, by the way. It’s shocking. And it’s getting worse. For a quick overview, see “15 Mind-Blowing Facts About Wealth And Inequality In America)

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Gates’ departure will be noticed. Gates clearly discerns the insidious effects of the paradox of power. The paradox of power undermines and corrupts the cognitive processes of so many in DC land. Gates set out to do something about the paradox of power and the Pentagon blubber-bloat and layering. Gates like the late Col. John Boyd (father of the OODA Loop) focuses on doing something for the National security and not merely sitting next to the big window wanting to be somebody. Gates is by no means is perfect; he knows that and has not lost sight of his flaws. Yet, Gates has always tried to the right thing for the Nation and those who serve in the armed forces as others (to include generals and admirals) focus on doing the right thing for their careers. Gates in a politically correct DC dares to exhibit a “profile in courage”. Yes, Gates’ departure will be noticed.

GI Wilson
Retired Colonel of Marines

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http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2010/08/13/20167/

Dragging the U.S. Military Culture into the 21st Century

13 August 2010 tags: , , , , by don

Summary:  Our soldiers fight using 21st century weapons but ancient methods.  Under the stress of a decade-long and running long war against adaptive but poorly equipped enemies, our military slowly evolves from its WWI doctrines (massed firepower, 2GW), towards methods used by the Wehrmacht in WWII ( maneuver war, 3GW).  The origin of these doctrines lies in the century following Prussia’s defeat in the Napoleonic Wars.  Here Donald Vandergriff describes what’s happening and why it is necessary.

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